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Golden Globe Film Awards Predictions

December 12, 2017

The 2018 Golden Globe nominees have been announced. Here are the Valor Dictus’ predictions for how the awards will ultimately turn out when they air January 7.

Best Picture- Drama

  1. Dunkirk
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. The Post
  4. Call Me By Your Name
  5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

While Dunkirk and The Post are safer bets here, the across-the-board love for The Shape of Water this year is too hard to ignore, and I’m not sure where else the HFPA would honor it. Call Me By Your Name seemed like a surefire frontrunner but snubs in Screenplay and Director have made that unlikely, and the minor controversy Three Billboards has garnered will likely hurt it here.

Best Actor- Drama

  1. Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
  2. Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
  3. Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
  4. Tom Hanks (The Post)
  5. Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq)

I’m taking a risk here in picking Hanks, who hasn’t won in over a decade, particularly in a year with a career-best Gary Oldman and two-time winner Daniel Day-Lewis’ supposedly final bow. However, Hanks’ turn as journalistic hero Ben Bradlee will likely play quite well to the press voters. Denzel would have to overcome mixed reviews to garner a win, and Chalamet feels a bit too fresh for the generally more senior voting body.

Best Actress- Drama

  1. Meryl Streep (The Post)
  2. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
  3. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
  4. Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game)
  5. Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World)

8-time Globe winner Streep seems like a sure bet in this category, having earned rave reviews for her portrayal of Washington Post owner Katherine Graham, but she has steep competition in the form of a powerful Frances McDormand and a mute performance from Sally Hawkins. Unlikely to gain many votes are Jessica Chastain and Michelle Williams, the latter’s nomination a major shock alone.

Best Picture- Comedy/Musical

  1. Get Out
  2. Lady Bird
  3. The Greatest Showman
  4. I, Tonya
  5. The Disaster Artist

Greta Gerwig’s impeccable Lady Bird, a critical favorite that’s playing well for audiences, seems like a shoe-in here. Jordan Peele’s Get Out may play here, timeliness on its side, but a lack of broader support isn’t a good sign. Late-game players I, Tonya and The Disaster Artist have been building steam but it may be too little too late. Michael Gracey’s The Greatest Showman will almost certainly fail, with a distinct lack of critical support.

Best Actor- Comedy/Musical

  1. James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
  2. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
  3. Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)
  4. Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
  5. Ansel Elgort (Baby Driver)

James Franco’s brilliant turn as infamous filmmaker Tommy Wiseau is simply too good for the HFPA to ignore. Daniel Kaluuya’s subtle work in Get Out will likely garner some love, while the other three nominees won’t likely bring much competition.

Best Actress- Comedy/Musical

  1. Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
  2. Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
  3. Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)
  4. Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul)
  5. Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker)

Delivering her best work yet, Margot Robbie’s portrayal of Tonya Harding is nothing short of perfect, and although Saoirse Ronan is beautifully honest in Lady Bird, Robbie’s star power will likely be too much to overcome. Emma Stone and Judi Dench had some buzz out of the fall festival circuit but early theatrical releases will almost certainly damage their impact, and few have seen or even frankly heard of Mirren’s The Leisure Seeker.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
  2. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
  3. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
  4. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
  5. Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)

In a list built of acclaimed character actors, Willem Dafoe’s work in Sean Baker’s minimalist masterpiece The Florida Project seems the most awards-ready. Most likely to one-up him here is Sam Rockwell, who’s bigoted small town police officer ultimately offers an emotionally brutal film its heart.

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
  2. Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
  3. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
  4. Hong Chau (Downsizing)
  5. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)

Laurie Metcalf has been labelled a frontrunner in this category ever since Lady Bird’s TIFF premiere, and while that buzz may backfire with a win for the wonderful Allison Janney, I’m still calling Metcalf here. While Spencer is terrific in The Shape of Water, it’s unlikely to play for a win. The divisiveness surrounding Downsizing will hurt Chau, and Blige’s role in Mudbound may be too minor for its own good.

Best Director

  1. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
  2. Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
  3. Steven Spielberg (The Post)
  4. Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World)
  5. Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

While Nolan seems like a lock for Oscar glory, his refusal to schmooze with HFPA voters will almost certainly hurt him here, paving the way for a long overdue Del Toro win. Spielberg has a solid shot, but The Post doesn’t seem to break much new ground for the prolific director. Scott may gain a few sympathy votes having had to overcome the controversy of former All the Money in the World star Kevin Spacey, while McDonagh was a surprise nomination.

Best Screenplay

  1. The Post
  2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  3. Lady Bird
  4. The Shape of Water
  5. Molly’s Game

This seems like the best category to honor Three Billboards in, playwright Martin McDonagh’s writing hands down the best of the year. Globe perennial Aaron Sorkin may challenge him with Molly’s Game, and there’s always the possibility Lady Bird simply sweeps. The odds for the other two nominees are strong but not favorable.

Best Animated Feature

  1. Coco
  2. The Boss Baby
  3. The Breadwinner
  4. Loving Vincent
  5. Ferdinand

Coco is Pixar’s best film in ages. ‘Nuff said.

Best Original Score

  1. Dunkirk
  2. The Shape of Water
  3. The Post
  4. Phantom Thread
  5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I’m almost certain Hans Zimmer’s electrifying Dunkirk score will win out here, but I’m placing my bets on Radiohead frontrunner Jonny Greenwood’s work on Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread here if only because the Globes have consistently shined a spotlight on underappreciated films via this category.

Best Original Song

  1. “Remember Me” (Coco)
  2. “Mighty River” (Mudbound)
  3. “This Is Me” (The Greatest Showman)
  4. “Home” (Ferdinand)
  5. “The Star” (The Star)

Mary J. Blige’s powerful “Mighty River” may have some social appeal with voters, but the standout Coco song is both a safe pick for the HFPA and arguably the right one. “This Is Me” is a strong competitor, while the final two were shocks to essentially every pundit.

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. The Square (Sweden)
  2. First They Killed My Father (Cambodia)
  3. Loveless (Russia)
  4. A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
  5. In the Fade (Germany)

Ruben Ostlund’s Palme D’Or winner The Square had all the buzz for the last few months, but I think it may be far too eccentric to win over a broad range of voters, and a win for what may be Angelina Jolie’s best film now seems all but inevitable. Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, and In the Fade are more likely to play for Oscars.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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